IMF Projects Cratering Growth but Peaking Inflation in January World Economic Outlook Update
The global economy is not out of the proverbial woods just yet. But the record-high inflation that has plagued the world since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 is hitting its peak, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports in its January 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update: Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth. Though growth is expected to dip in 2023 and the shocks felt from tightening monetary policy, slowdowns in China, and the effects of the Russian war in Ukraine continue to radiate through the economy, the IMF says the adverse risks laid out in its October 2022 Outlook have moderated.
Real GDP was stronger than expected in many economies during the third quarter of 2022 (though likely cooled off in the fourth quarter, the IMF says), including those in the United States, Europe, and emerging market and developing economies. These economies experienced strong private consumption and investment domestically, with households spending more on services and tapping into their savings to do so. According to the IMF, energy markets were quicker to adjust to the effects of the war in Ukraine than anticipated, another positive surprise.
Looking ahead, global inflation is projected to decrease from its peak in 2022 of 8.8% to hit 6.6% in 2023, thanks to tightening monetary policy in central banks across the world. By 2024, global inflation will fall to 4.3%, a figure that is still higher than the pre-pandemic rate of 3.5%. Global economic growth has not begun to meaningfully recover just yet and is expected to drop from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023 (revised up 0.2 point from the October 2022 WEO), before rising back up to 3.1% in 2024.
The US economy has seen some encouraging signs in recent months, with 517,000 new jobs created and unemployment hitting 3.4% (a 50-year-low) in January of this year. On February 1, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by only 0.25 point, its smallest increase since March 2022. But the successive hikes are expected to hamper US growth, which the IMF projects will drop from 2% in 2022 to 1.4% in 2023 and 1% in 2024.
Growth in the euro area and the United Kingdom is in even worse shape, expected to hit 0.7% and -0.6% respectively in 2023. These forecasts are a 0.9 point downward revision of the October 2022 WEO’s predictions for the UK, but a 0.2 point upward revision of those for the EU, reflecting the effects of fast rate hikes enacted by the European Central Bank. Nonetheless, inflation in the UK and in several European countries remains at or above 10%.
China continues to drive the outlook in Asia. After nearly three years of rigid zero-COVID lockdowns, China relaxed the policy in November 2022, clearing the way for a swifter economic recovery. The IMF estimates China’s real GDP slowed to 3% in 2022 but will rise to 5.2% in 2023 before slowing to 4% in 2024. This rebound could be uneven or stalled by the virus, as immunity levels are still low among the population, and the healthcare system in certain areas may not have the capacity to respond to wide outbreaks.
Other downside risks still loom over a potential recovery, chief among them the potential that the war in Ukraine could escalate and geopolitical fragmentation could intensify as a result. Despite aggressive interest rate hikes enacted across economies, inflation could persist if food and energy prices rise due to the war in Ukraine, or if the labor market remains tight and wages grow.
As explored in TDA’s 2023 Instrument Industry Outlook Report, the global economic situation points to a positive but uneven outlook for the analytical instruments industry, which has maintained growth through the last few uncertain years. If inflation does respond to tightening monetary policy and prices go down accordingly towards the end of 2023, consumers will be more apt to make large purchases like appliances and vehicles. Along those same lines, laboratories will have more purchasing power to buy large instruments, but these outcomes could be squashed if inflation doesn’t budge. And instruments will continue to be needed to respond to the global energy crisis, including atomic spectroscopy technologies for testing of coal-derived pollutants (world coal consumption hit an all-time high in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency), and materials analysis and process analytical instrumentation products, as US and OPEC crude oil production is expected to increase in 2023.